Oh no!! Brexit not going quite as well as hoped

[BoldonLad]

No it wouldn’t. The result was swung by a few hundred thousand voting leave instead of remain. That was partly achieved through the promotion of disquiet about foreigners stealing ‘our’ jobs and ‘our’ council houses and ‘our’ women.

You have insight into why people voted to leave?

In particular, you know the reasons why several millions did, and, the separate motives of ‘a few hundred thousand’? Fascinating

 

[newfhouse]

You have insight into why people voted to leave?

Yes. The detailed research is out there as well as a tonne of anecdata.

In particular, you know the reasons why several millions did, and, the separate motives of ‘a few hundred thousand’? Fascinating

Not quite what I said. There’s no need to separate individual motives since every vote carried the same weight. My point about a few hundred thousand voting the other way changing the result is simple arithmetic.

 

[BoldonLad]

Yes. The detailed research is out there as well as a tonne of anecdata.


Not quite what I said. There’s no need to separate individual motives since every vote carried the same weight. My point about a few hundred thousand voting the other way changing the result is simple arithmetic.

Approximately 17.5 million voted leave, and approximately 16.1 million voted leave. Approximately 18% didn't vote at all.

I don't understand you few hundred thousand simple arithmetic reasoning, there was approximately 1.4 million difference, c700,000 would have had to changed their vote. Depends on your definition of 'few' I suppose.

You don't say which 'detailed research' you are referring too, but, the JRF research suggests poverty, low skills and lack of opportunities as the motivators for a 'leave' vote, rather than the 'all Brexit voters are racists' mantra usual trotted out (not saying you subscribe to that).

I know my personal experiences are not statistically significant, they may even be, heaven forbid, anecdotal, but, the JSF 'data' does not match with the voting pattern of my circle of relatives, friends and acquaintances.

 

[Fab Foodie]

You don't say which 'detailed research' you are referring too, but, the JRF research suggests poverty, low skills and lack of opportunities as the motivators for a 'leave' vote, rather than the 'all Brexit voters are racists' mantra usual trotted out (not saying you subscribe to that).

I wonder how that's going for them?

Also the reasons you stated above are not mutually exclusive to the usual anti-immigration stance either....

 

[BoldonLad]

I wonder how that's going for them?

Also the reasons stated above are not mutually exclusive to the usual anti-immigration stance either....

For whom? the researchers or Leave voters?

 

[Fab Foodie]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/31/brexit-monster-under-bed-liz-truss-ignore

 

[Fab Foodie]

For whom? the researchers or Leave voters?

The leave voters.
It's been great for the researchers- kept them in work!

 

[Deleted member 49]

suggests poverty, low skills and lack of opportunities as the motivators for a 'leave' vote, rather than the 'all Brexit voters are racists' mantra usual trotted out (not saying you subscribe to that).

Got to agree with that....feck there were plenty of reasons that I would of liked out of the EU.
Not under a Conservative goverment though I will add.

 

[BoldonLad]

I wonder how that's going for them?

Also the reasons you stated above are not mutually exclusive to the usual anti-immigration stance either....

That was rather my point. Almost all of my relatives, friends, acquaintances voted leave, a very large proportion of them did so on the basis of immigration, but, for the most part, it had nothing to do with dislike of 'foreigners'. Personally, I think they were hugely mistaken in their choice, but, I thought we were talking about what people think/thought, not what was (in our opinion) correct.

 

[Fab Foodie]

Almost all of my relatives, friends, acquaintances voted leave, a very large proportion of them did so on the basis of immigration, but, for the most part, it had nothing to do with dislike of 'foreigners'.

...which is in itself horribly nuanced - I'm not racist but....

Nobody seemed to take issue from 'foreigners' from the USA, Canada, Australia coming here to work....

 

[newfhouse]

I don't understand you few hundred thousand simple arithmetic reasoning, there was approximately 1.4 million difference, c700,000 would have had to changed their vote. Depends on your definition of 'few' I suppose.

Seven is ‘a few’ in this context.

You don't say which 'detailed research' you are referring too, but, the JRF research suggests poverty, low skills and lack of opportunities as the motivators for a 'leave' vote,

You seemed surprised that I had any insight at all. You have now quoted one of many freely available and well known studies that provide such insight.

rather than the 'all Brexit voters are racists' mantra usual trotted out (not saying you subscribe to that).

I don’t. It seems to me that the people trotting that out are mostly over-defensive leavers. Are you sure you’re not as confused as Lance Private Francois?

View: https://youtu.be/190fTFg50W0

 

[jowwy]

Approximately 17.5 million voted leave, and approximately 16.1 million voted leave. Approximately 18% didn't vote at all.

I don't understand you few hundred thousand simple arithmetic reasoning, there was approximately 1.4 million difference, c700,000 would have had to changed their vote. Depends on your definition of 'few' I suppose.

You don't say which 'detailed research' you are referring too, but, the JRF research suggests poverty, low skills and lack of opportunities as the motivators for a 'leave' vote, rather than the 'all Brexit voters are racists' mantra usual trotted out (not saying you subscribe to that).

I know my personal experiences are not statistically significant, they may even be, heaven forbid, anecdotal, but, the JSF 'data' does not match with the voting pattern of my circle of relatives, friends and acquaintances.

33.6m voted leave……no wonder we brexited. Cant argue with those figures really

 

[PaulB]

This?

View attachment 2035
https://www.britishelectionstudy.co...ow-to-vote-in-the-eu-referendum/#.Ywz-Ly3TWfA

Well they got that one very, very wrong, didn't they? The immigration they wanted to 'take back control of' is now much higher than it could have been in their worst imaginations (well, most of them lack imagination but you know what I mean) yet they still cling to their belief it will all come good. They'll believe anything they're told - and like it! Most of them can't see a co-relation between Brexit and the coming cataclysmic economic crisis we're staring down the barrel of.

 

[icowden]

Nobody seemed to take issue from 'foreigners' from the USA, Canada, Australia coming here to work....

"Well of course not. It's those uneducated ones with the dark skin who can't even speak the language. The least they could have done is learn English on the way over " - Colonel Gammon Fitzpatrick-Smyth.

I think more the problem is that, just as in Trumpism, it was easy for the Brexit campaign to make stuff up to either scare people or just promise stuff that was never going to happen. The remain campaign as with most liberal or left-wing campaigns relied on facts, statistics and experts. Those aren't exciting. We already have those.

But promise sunlit uplands, better deals for farmers and fishermen, more money for the NHS, better control of borders so there are more jobs for local people... what's not to like? Doesn't matter if it's all made up, it sounds good. Tap into all that anti-EU sentiment that Boris has been brewing for the last 10 years - bendy bananas, banning hair dryers - that's stuff we just don't need. Never mind that the bit s that are true came mostly from the UK anyway.

It's only once your job is gone, you can't afford fuel and, the key workers are out on strike, inflation goes through the roof and the legal system collapses that some people being to think - maybe we were being lied to?. Even then, for some people, their is an innate confidence that the Government will sort it out before things get too bad. Maybe they will, but I doubt it will be this government.

The people who wanted this didn't want any of the things in the campaign. They wanted better and easier ways to retain their wealth and become wealthier. Newspaper barons protecting their wealth and hedge funds, same with Politicians. The EU wanted more transparency on offshore companies. Instead we have freeports - licenced tax avoidance.

This was never about us and them - just about them.

 

[albion]

One consolation for Brexit. Whilst it beats the Ukraine war as a cause it far behind in 2nd place to our current rulers.