3 by-elections - let’s have your comments

[BoldonLad]

It's not really explaining it away - it's analysing what happened. It wasn't really that more people voted labour - their increase was quite small. But there was a notable drop in people voting Conservative. Tory voters just didn't vote. About 20,000 of them. Tactical voting would have won the seat for Labour - the Greens and Lib Dems are wasting their time there, just as Labour would be wasting their time in my constituency.

As would have Starmer convincing just a few hundred of the 20,000 that it was worth/safe voting Labour.

 

[icowden]

Lib Dems being down 4.6 points would suggest that there was an element of tactical voting. They got effectively zero. OK if every single Lib Dem and Green voter had cast their vote for the Labour candidate that would have swung it, but that's unrealistic to expect.

Not if there isn't a Green or Lib Dem candidate to vote for. Then you force the choice between Labour or not voting. They only needed 500 people to think it was worth a punt on Labour.

 

[Bromptonaut]

Reminds me of Monty Python's election night special.

Something like 'the silly party lost this seat because lots of slightly silly people moved down the road'.

Why try so hard to explain away Uxbridge?

Everyone knows it was so close it was near to a score draw.

Uxbridge stayed Conservative because the Tories skillfully played the ULEZ issue as a Labour imposition and a wedge. Somehow they were allowed to gloss over the role of the outgoing member for Uxbridge/Ruislip in both the origination of the scheme and its later extension to the North/South Circular.

Labour were complacent; they thought they'd got that one in the bag already. They should have seen the potential use of ULEZ as a wedge issue and dealt with it properly. That may have meant more concessions for trade vehicles etc which, I suspect, are the main cohort of vocal losers.

It's a bit rich for Starmer to blame the Mayor for the substantive policy though I suspect sloppy communication may have played a role.

 

[icowden]

Uxbridge stayed Conservative because the Tories skillfully played the ULEZ issue as a Labour imposition and a wedge. Somehow they were allowed to gloss over the role of the outgoing member for Uxbridge/Ruislip in both the origination of the scheme and its later extension to the North/South Circular.

I agree, without the ULEZ issue there may have been more of a swing to Labour. Their bigger problem is their own supporters not voting. All 20,000 of them.

 

[Beebo]

Labour have won a huge swing by election in Scotland.
A big swing in Scotland could make winning a general election far easier for Labour and will worry the Conservatives.

 

[spen666]

Every politician or supporter after a by election success proclaims it as evidence of a new era in national politics.

In reality, what happens at a General Election rarely mirrors by election results.

Also every politician puts a spin on results.


Eg Labour say shows SNP failing
Tories say SNP are a busted flush
SNP will say Tories are a failed party

 

[Beebo]

Eg Labour say shows SNP failing
Tories say SNP are a busted flush
SNP will say Tories are a failed party

I agree that it’s unlikely the result will be mirrored everywhere.
But.
The Tories should be very worried if they think the SNP are a busted flush.
They are the only party who can stop Labour in Scotland. Conservatives have no chance at all.

 

[albion]

Re - Eg Labour say shows SNP failing
Tories say SNP are a busted flush
SNP will say Tories are a failed party

Might well be right on this one. Yet people seem to have short memories with regards to the Tories.

 

[Bromptonaut]

Is the result consistent with the opinion polls in wider Scotland and/or the Central Belt?

Biggest straw in the wind that it might be atypical was was voter turnout below 40%.

Did the SNP stay at home to punish the party for the former member's misconduct?

Was there a general 'don't care it's only a byelection' issue?

Are any other byelections pending in Scotland?

 

[Xipe Totec]

Re - Eg Labour say shows SNP failing
Tories say SNP are a busted flush
SNP will say Tories are a failed party

Might well be right on this one. Yet people seem to have short memories with regards to the Tories.

Scotland not having voted for a Tory government in nearly 70 years presumably being the exception that proves that rule?

May well change next year if the by-election swing's replicated in a GE, and Sir Starmer's Brexit Red Tories pick up 40+ Scottish seats.

 

[albion]

The Tories went vote socialist at Brexit. Pensions and minimum wage were deemed voter attractions to the normally labour voting Brexit electorate.
Spending now being out of control also tells us that the rise of Scottish conservatism is certainoy ended.

I very much doubt the Trump like anti-marketing of Labour will work. And Tories can only head further into Farage 'true Brexiteer' territory.
Has the UK any stomach for that?

 

[Xipe Totec]

The Tories went vote socialist at Brexit. Pensions and minimum wage were deemed voter attractions to the normally labour voting Brexit electorate.
Spending now being out of control also tells us that the rise of Scottish conservatism is certainoy ended.

Scotland rejected Brexit by 62% in 2016, it would probably be closer to 80% by now based on current polling. Pretty sure Scottish Conservatism's been defunct since 1956 or so!

Would be morbidly interesting to see what a Tory party with Farage as anointed mascot (if not leader) would do. Never underestimate how awful people are prepared to be when being awful gets publicly validated.

 

[albion]

Yet they are the 2nd biggest party in Scotland with 31MSPs. Half that of SNP but 50% more than Labour.

Starmer has better vision than me. Good poker from the guy.

 

[Pale Rider]

The most interesting part of the result was the guy who stood under his own name - no party affiliation - and polled six votes.

He can vote for himself, so the other five were presumably his mum and dad, and three other friends/relations.

Fringe candidates often only get a few tens of votes, but six is the lowest I can recall.

 

[Xipe Totec]

Yet they are the 2nd biggest party in Scotland with 31MSPs. Half that of SNP but 50% more than Labour.

Starmer has better vision than me. Good poker from the guy.

If Holyrood was first-past-the-post they'd be endangered if not extinct. List Tories are the downside of PR.