How to Win Friends and Influence People

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Unkraut

Master of the Inane Comment
Location
Germany
Take a look at the recent German election, no party wins enough seats to form a government (as usual with PR)
I have an interest in this, as I have just voted in a federal election for the first time!

Historically your statement isn't true, there have been post-war govts with an absolute majority. The scene today, however, is different with more than the old big two and one smaller set of political parties. There are 6 electable ones to choose from now.

There is a mixed system of direct candidates who get a simple majority in each constituency, plus a second vote which is PR and is for the party, who supply a list of candidates who will get in depending on the overall share of the vote. Less than 5% and you don't get in, which as happened to the hard left (Linke) this time. There is also a system of 'overhang' MP's - don't ask, Germans can't explain it either, but I think it is intended to ensure no vote is 'wasted'.

This system undoubtedly makes coalitions more likely, as you don't get a situation where say the Greens would get 2 or 3 million votes but one MP as can happen in the UK. I think coalitions are now a permanent feature of the landscape.
so there follows months of murky secret meetings and deal making.
That can happen, although negotiations on a common programme I would not classify as murky secret meetings. The difficulty this time round is the liberals and the Greens are fairly far apart in their programmes, and it will be difficult to find enough common ground to form a stable government. Both have had coalitions with the social democrats in the past. A stable government of three parties is certainly a challenge!

Con - Lib - Green is also a possibility.
The electorate has no say in who comes out of the horsetrading on top.
The amount any one party's programme can be implemented will in effect be in proportion to their share of the vote in the election. There is tactical voting as well to try to get the best coalition. I voted liberal with the second vote in part to prevent a red - red - green coalition, where the remnant of the old eastern communist party would gain some influence over the government.

Strangely enough there are Con - Green governments in some of the states, an unlikely combination but on two occasions have been re-elected. Some Greens think they can get more out of a Con coalition than one with the SPD.

Any government that emerges at least has to have the majority of the population behind it, even if it is not exactly what everyone who voted for a particular party would like. Compromises have to be made, there is no winner takes it all.
I also wonder about the interregnum.

Does the existing government carry on as a lame duck, or is the Fatherland left without leadership until all the deals have been done?
The constitution doesn't stipulate any limit on how long the negotiations can take - last time it was ages, as a multi-party coalition was unsuccessful and a grand coalition had to be negotiated. Until then the existing government and chancellor carry on on a caretaker basis.

By common consent what happened last time needs to be avoided, so I think a new government will be arrived at fairly quickly.

It's not a perfect system, and personally I don't think FPTP is 'undemocratic', but some PR at least means more of the electorates wishes can be reflected in a parliament.

There is a trade off between a smallish vote enabling disproportionate majorities of the Thatcher ear, and the tail wagging the dog where a smaller coalition party can threaten to being down a government thereby gaining disproportionate influence.
 
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Pale Rider

Veteran
I have an interest in this, as I have just voted in a federal election for the first time!

Historically your statement isn't true, there have been post-war govts with an absolute majority. The scene today, however, is different with more than the old big two and one smaller set of political parties. There are 6 electable ones to choose from now.

There is a mixed system of direct candidates who get a simple majority in each constituency, plus a second vote which is PR and is for the party, who supply a list of candidates who will get in depending on the overall share of the vote. Less than 5% and you don't get in, which as happened to the hard left (Linke) this time. There is also a system of 'overhang' MP's - don't ask, Germans can't explain it either, but I think it is intended to ensure no vote is 'wasted'.

This system undoubtedly makes coalitions more likely, as you don't get a situation where say the Greens would get 2 or 3 million votes but one MP as can happen in the UK. I think coalitions are now a permanent feature of the landscape.

That can happen, although negotiations on a common programme I would not classify as murky secret meetings. The difficulty this time round is the liberals and the Greens are fairly far apart in their programmes, and it will be difficult to find enough common ground to form a stable government. Both have had coalitions with the social democrats in the past. A stable government of three parties is certainly a challenge!

Con - Lib - Green is also a possibility.

The amount any one party's programme can be implemented will in effect be in proportion to their share of the vote in the election. There is tactical voting as well to try to get the best coalition. I voted liberal with the second vote in part to prevent a red - red - green coalition, where the remnant of the old eastern communist party would gain some influence over the government.

Strangely enough there are Con - Green governments in some of the states, an unlikely combination but on two occasions have been re-elected. Some Greens think they can get more out of a Con coalition than one with the SPD.

Any government that emerges at least has to have the majority of the population behind it, even if it is not exactly what everyone who voted for a particular party would like. Compromises have to be made, there is no winner takes it all.

The constitution doesn't stipulate any limit on how long the negotiations can take - last time it was ages, as a multi-party coalition was unsuccessful and a grand coalition had to be negotiated. Until then the existing government and chancellor carry on on a caretaker basis.

By common consent what happened last time needs to be avoided, so I think a new government will be arrived at fairly quickly.

It's not a perfect system, and personally I don't think FPTP is 'undemocratic', but some PR at least means more of the electorates wishes can be reflected in a parliament.

There is a trade off between a smallish vote enabling disproportionate majorities of the Thatcher ear, and the tail wagging the dog where a smaller coalition party can threaten to being down a government thereby gaining disproportionate influence.

That's about as clear an explanation as I've seen.

Predictably, I'm going to stick with the certainty and simplicity of first past the post, even though every Tory vote I've ever cast has been 'wasted' since I've always lived in safe Labour areas.
 

icowden

Legendary Member
There's no such thing.

I'm pretty sure there is.

Look, there is even an article about it:-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proportional_representation

I presume that you are taking issue with the work "proper". Also interesting that you see coalition governments as a bad thing. The whole idea of PR is that the parties are representative of the national vote, not how well they carve up electoral boundaries. Yes, you are more likely to get a coalition but that means that when a nut job proposes to leave the worlds largest free trade area, there is some tempering done by the party that they have to work with. Arguably the Con/Lib coalition was a gooodish government as the Lib Dems were able to temper some of Cameron et al's stupidity. As soon as they were jettisoned, Brexit...
 
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FishFright

Well-Known Member
According to wiki, about 70% of the electorate didn't understand first and second votes.

Although I suppose simply slapping an X next to the candidates who appeal to you the most is good enough.

Quoting: "According to public polls, about 70% (2002) to 63% (2005) of the voters mistakenly thought the first vote to be more important than the second."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_system_of_Germany

I'm sure it wouldn't take long to educate the vast majority of those that are confused and certainly not to complicated to stop an alternative voting system.
 
According to wiki, about 70% of the electorate didn't understand first and second votes.

Quoting: "According to public polls, about 70% (2002) to 63% (2005) of the voters mistakenly thought the first vote to be more important than the second."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_system_of_Germany

Ranking the first and second votes for importance is pretty subjective. A voter in Germany, or in Scotland where the system is similar, might reasonably feel electing their constituency representative was of greater import than the list member.
 

mjr

Active Member
According to wiki, about 70% of the electorate didn't understand first and second votes.
1. wiki is not a reliable source and no source is given for that claim.

2. The claim is only that they did not understand the relative importance of the first/constituency and second/region votes, not that they simply didn't understand them. I think the relative importance is a matter of opinion: do you care more about who your constituency MP is or do you care more about which parties are in government?

I'd love to see another party supporting democratic voting. Labour already held an inquiry into this when in power back in 1997/1998 and then did almost exactly naff-all to implement it, so it looks pretty simple for them to adopt its recommendations now and recognise at long last that Brown's backsliding in the 2010 manifesto helped them lose.
 

mudsticks

Squire
Where some people in the UK still believe in the fantasy that no other political system other than the one invented here can be any good, or it is all too complicated for our feeble little British minds, some people are able to take a more mature, informed stance having experienced PR:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-58718307

A system of government, where disparate parties have to work together, find common ground, compromise, and take in the views of others seems like a far more fair, democratic and just system, than that which we have in the UK currently.

It is, after all, how most organisations , that are not out and out authoritarian dictatorships have to work, in the rest of the world.

It tempers any extremes .

And keeps if not everyone happy, then a far larger chunk of the 'middle ground' at least relatively satisfied ,I would have thought.

I'm getting daily updates from my currently still residing onsite, German friend, on how it all works, who is who, and I'm having a slightly more in depth perspective on all the parties, who may or may not be forming the next coalition..

It sounds complicated, but that's not actually a reason not to do things that way, if it's better for democracy


I don't think that we in the UK are really too stupid to be able to grasp a new system, are *we .???.

OK we might need a little bit of extra education on it, but I'm sure most of us could wrap our squishy little brainiums around it eventually.


Of course the

"Oh politicians..They're all the same "

Brigade, can just carry on ignoring the whole thing as usual.

* rhetorical question please do not answer :rolleyes:
 

Rusty Nails

Country Member
wiki is not a reliable source and no source is given for that claim.
Wiki is a bit like that series of manuals: The Idiots Guide to...Facts.

And yes, I have used it myself when I was too lazy to do some proper research. A common trait, unfortunately.
 

Archie_tect

Active Member
I would rather we had formal PR rather than the FPTP with deals being done with the likes of the DUP. Certainly the LibDem vote collapsed after the ConDem coalition mainly as a result of the Conservatives being able to hoist all the blame on the LibDems for the imposition of tuition fees.
 
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Rusty Nails

Country Member
Of course the

"Oh politicians..They're all the same "

Brigade, can just carry on ignoring the whole thing as usual.

I must admit, in my more cynical moments, thinking that, but I think that our current virtual duopoly system is more likely to make them that way. Having a PR system would mean that politicians and aspiring politicians are more likely to be honest about their convictions and join a party that supports them, rather than hiding them behind the skirts of whichever of the two main parties provides the most likely career progression.

There would possibly be less internecine divisions in the two main parties caused by trying to fit everyone into them and pretending there is unity.
 
German elections looks fairly complicated to me, given the UK system could be summarised in about six paragraphs.

https://www.dw.com/en/german-election-process/a-37805756

The precise working of the lists and additional members seems complex but the theory of two votes and additional members isn't difficult to follow. Scotland and Wales also use additional member systems; is there significant evidence of voters not grasping how to use it?

Given what happened in Germany in the thirties the post war constitution is, unsurprisingly, laden with checks and balances.
 
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